Welcome to The Triangle and Two - a newsletter dedicated to basketball analysis, the business of sports and self improvement!
"The Mamba Mentality simply means trying to be the best version of yourself…everyday you’re trying to become better.” — Kobe Bean Bryant
THE TRIANGLE…
“I just try to be the best player on the court every night, and I think that’s the mentality that I take every time I step on the floor.” — Jayson Tatum
Although the Boston Celtics were eliminated by the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals, that shouldn’t take away from the leap the Celtics’ Jayson Tatum made this year. Because if any player today embraces the “Mamba Mentality,” it’s Tatum — who, as a grade schooler, told his mom “he wanted to be Kobe” (not just a basketball player mind you, but, specifically, Kobe Bryant).
Tatum, who this (regular) season averaged 23.4 PPG/7.0 RPG/3.0 APG while shooting over 40% from the three-point line (not to mention averaging 1.4 steals per game and 0.9 blocks per game), became the youngest Celtic ever to be named All-NBA — earning third-team honors. And, going to back to Kobe, Tatum — at age 22 — became the second youngest (only behind Kobe at age 21) player in NBA history to have 25+ points/10+ rebounds/5+ assists in a Game 7, helping the Celtics defeat the defending champion Toronto Raptors in the second round of this year’s playoffs.
Putting aside the aforementioned accolades, Tatum is a superstar (yes, we’re saying it — SUPERSTAR) because he combines a full arsenal of offensive moves (unstoppable step-back three-pointers, effortless Eurosteps and the ability to finish strong at the rim) with tremendous athleticism. Dangerous in half-court or in transition, there’s really no good defense for Tatum — who at 6’ 8’’, with a 6’ 11’’ wingspan, can shoot over the top of most wing defenders. This combination of athleticism and length has also made him into a burgeoning All-NBA defender.
Coach Tailor actually had the chance to work with Tatum as part of the 2015 USA Basketball U-19 team and at the 2016 Nike Hoop Summit — and even then it was clear that he was the real deal. Unfortunately for Coach Tailor, Tatum committed to Duke — where he was 2-0 against Coach Tailor’s squad.
Personal connection aside, let’s take a look at Tatum’s evolution over the years. He burst on to the scene in high school, primarily known for his midrange game and athleticism — at the 2014 U-17 and 2015 U-19 FIBA World Championships, in just 20 minutes per game, he scored 12.6 PPG while shooting 50.3% inside the arc and 31.8% from the three-point line. At the time, as the percentages would indicate, and further evidenced by a paltry 1.6 three-point attempts per game, his long-range shooting was a work in progress. The coaching staff had to encourage him to take more three-point shots in both practices and games — and we’re sure the Celtics coaches have continued to stress this to Tatum over the years.
At Duke, Tatum was plagued with some early injuries, but showed more than enough to be selected 3rd in the 2017 NBA Draft. He was a midrange maestro — shooting 45% on 53 midrange attempts in college. For sake of comparison, per available Second Spectrum tracking data, Division 1 college basketball midrange shooting sits at a paltry 34.2% with an expected shooting percentage of 39.3% (in other words, college players’ actual percentage from midrange is about 5% worse than you would expect taking into account the shooter, the distance of a shot, the defender and whether the shot was contested). As Tatum’s middle game was 6% better than expected shooting percentages and 11% above the Division I average, it was obvious that he was a supremely talented outlier — very few college players could match his ability to hit these often contested, off the dribble shots. And, although we guarded him during games as a reluctant three-point shooter (i.e. closing out “short” on the perimeter), he still shot a very respectable 34.7% on 117 attempts from long-range.
Since joining the Celtics, Tatum has been very proficient from deep — in fact, as the volume of shots has increased from season to season, his percentages have stayed relatively consistent. Take a look at these numbers (which include playoff games) from his three seasons in the NBA:
Rookie Year —> 41.1% on 304 attempts
Year 2 —> 36.8% on 342 attempts
This Year —> 39.8% on 585 attempts!!!
Per Second Spectrum tracking data, Tatum, this season, shot almost 11% above the expected value of his 3’s. This takes into account that he also shot 39.5% on non-catch & shoot attempts (meaning the dribble pull-up variety) this year! Basically, Tatum has become really good at creating and hitting tough, contested three-pointers!
Adding this dimension to an already lethal middle game — 39.6% on 283 attempts this season — and the ability to finish at the rim — 61.8% on 332 attempts this season — we’ve now got a complete, three-level scoring machine.
Take a look at the video below, highlighting Tatum’s game from his high school days to now!
Safe to say, as we said last week, we’re bullish on Jayson Tatum rookie cards!
The NBA Finals is a matchup of two former Video Coordinators!
Miami Heat Coach Erik Spoelstra during his video coordinator days!
In a testament to the power of starting at the bottom and grinding your way to the top, both head coaches in this year’s NBA Finals, Erik Spoelstra (Miami Heat) and Frank Vogel (LA Lakers), began their coaching careers in the video room — much like Coach Tailor (and like many others!). Now, unlike a lot of other professions, where the path looks linear (college -> graduate/professional school -> internship/entry level -> climb up the ladder), the path in professional coaching is back and forth and hardly linear — no two paths are the same. In fact, though Spoelstra and Vogel both are head coaches that started in the video room, their paths differ even as to how each ended up in the video room.
Let’s start with perhaps the most famous example in Spoelstra.
Sometimes lost in his story is that he was a scholarship basketball player at the University of Portland (no small feat), where he donned number 30 as a nod to legendary Portland Trail Blazers guard Terry Porter. Following college, he was a player-coach in Germany for two seasons before he joined the Heat as Video Coordinator in 1995. Here’s where luck kicked in: when the Heat controversially hired Pat Riley from the New York Knicks to be their head coach and head of basketball operations, Riley was not allowed to bring his Knicks staff to Miami — creating an opening that he filled with a young Spoelstra.
After two years as video coordinator, Spoelstra was promoted to assistant coach, where you have a lot more on-court time with players; this is where he developed a bond with players like Dwyane Wade. Being frank, in coaching, working closely on-court with players and developing trust is where your reputation is earned. Players see your work ethic, your ability to help them grow as players and the team develop as a collective unit, and your interest in them as people. Not only did “Coach Spo” navigate all that successfully, he’s obviously grown into a future Hall of Fame head coach.
Now on the other side, Vogel played Division III basketball at Juniata College (Huntingdon, Pennsylvania) before transferring to the University of Kentucky and becoming a student manager for Rick Pitino. When Pitino left Kentucky to coach the Celtics in 1997, Vogel went along with him and was hired as video coordinator; five years as a video coordinator led to him being promoted to assistant coach in Boston. Then began his NBA journey: Philadelphia -> LA Lakers -> Washington -> Indiana (where he became the Pacers head coach and was eventually fired) -> Orlando -> LA Lakers (current).
Now, you may be asking, “What exactly is a video coordinator?”
Generally speaking (because there are slight differences between college basketball and the NBA), video coordinators (1) oversee video breakdown, (2) have a hand in the scouting process and (3) are akin to IT support when necessary (e.g. the practice facility has a power outage!). They are always preparing video for the team to watch, whether it be of the team (e.g. that day’s practice) or of a future opponent. On a technical level, video coordinators make sure to both hook into broadcast feeds and film their own copies of games since there are many things cut out of broadcasts that can be important to scouting — like a baseline or sideline out of bounds play cut off by a replay. Additionally, at the college level, the video guys are always putting stuff together on the team’s style of play to show recruits how they fit the program and how the program fits them.
Everyone talks about the many hours a video coordinator puts into the job and, yes, days are long because you’re helping the coaching staff turn over every proverbial stone to find an edge. But the position has changed drastically (especially from the Spoelstra/Vogel days) with improvements in technology; once slow processes requiring VCRs and DVD writing are now almost exclusively done digitally on laptops. Video editing software is so sophisticated now that one can turn to platforms, such as Second Spectrum, and find answers to questions in minutes, instead of hours (previously you had to watch thousands of clips, trying to find a “needle in the haystack!”). VHS tapes and DVDs have turned into external hard drives and memory cards, making transporting equipment simple and light on planes and buses.
To all the aspiring coaches out there: keep grinding. Coaching, like anything else in life, has elements of timing and luck — all you can control is how hard you work and how much you improve. If you don’t believe us, listen to Coach Vogel!
It’s official — there will be a college basketball season!
Here we go — we got word recently that there will indeed be a season and it will start on November 25th! (Which means that many of the already cancelled games won’t be rescheduled) The NCAA has given some direction on the minimum and maximum number of games and some guidelines on COVID-19 protocols, but there’s still a whole lot we don’t know yet — take a look at this video that Oklahoma State’s team put out on what we know “for sure!”
Little by little, details are trickling in. The NCAA has said a team can qualify for the tournament this year with a minimum of 13 games and a maximum of 27 games. Our current schedule consists of 20 conference games, and this will likely be the case for the majority of programs. We expect to be tested up to three times a week once we’re playing games, but no mention yet of whether there will be rapid tests available on game day.
Unsurprisingly, this season will be nothing like we’ve seen before — very unpredictable. Playing in the ACC, we usually face pretty raucous environments on the road; however, the lack of fans this year will almost certainly minimize the impact of home court advantage (similar to the NBA Playoff Bubble). With players feeling more “comfortable” on the road, you very well may see:
Higher FT shooting percentages
Higher 3PT shooting percentages
Some really lopsided scores
Fewer fouls called in favor of the “home” team
More teams winning on the road (and more history being made like we did last year at UNC!)
Not to mention, if someone tests positive for COVID-19, the associated quarantine and contact tracing is another wrinkle to deal with this season. For example, whether it’s one player or the entire team that needs to shut down for a couple weeks, a team’s season may be significantly impacted. It may not seem long, but try shooting a basketball after 14 days off and tell us you haven’t lost a step!
All in all, while we still don’t know a ton, we are so glad and thankful that there will be a season to give us some sense of normalcy in these abnormal times. Stay safe, keep your distance and wear a mask!
-Coach Tailor
…AND TWO
Gianni$
As we mentioned last week, a Giannis Antetokounmpo rookie card recently sold for approximately $1.85 million (which included a “buyer’s premium”), making it the most expensive basketball card of all-time — surpassing a LeBron James rookie card that sold for $1.8 million in August.
What if I told you that you could have bought this Giannis card for $7,000?
For one collector, it’s a regretful reality; in 2014, a buyer who had bought this card on eBay for $7,000 noticed, upon receipt, a yellow stain on the back (which the card company said happens from time to time on this type of card — and that there is a safe way to remove it). Rather than try to “clean” the card, or hold onto it as is, the buyer returned the card to the Seller for a refund. And, as a result, missed out on more than a 260x return on investment; for the sake of comparison, if you bought a single share of Amazon stock in May 1997 and held it until today, you’d have received approximately 175x return on investment!
This card is worth approximately 52 Tesla Model 3 Cars
Why is this Giannis card worth so much (other than the fact it’s Giannis!)?
It’s a rare (only 1 in existence), “Rookie Patch Autograph” (RPA) card. RPA cards are (obviously) rookie cards that are autographed and have a piece/patch of the player’s jersey; a RPA card is usually 1 of 99 or less (again, in this case, this particular Giannis card is an even rarer 1 of 1). Moreover, this Giannis RPA card actually has the “Logoman” patch (the NBA logo that is sewn onto each jersey) — Logoman patch cards are usually more sought after than the “normal” jersey patches.
Although it’s 6 to 7 years too late to pull the Giannis Logoman from a pack of cards, it’s not too late to pull the Zion Williamson (New Orleans Pelicans) 2019-20 version of the same card! And, if you do, you should know that multiple people are currently offering $500K+ for this specific Zion card!
Time to rip some packs!
"You’re not that important. Get over yourself. You’re worried about how people may perceive you. You’re walking around and it’s embarrassing because you shot five airballs. Get over yourself." — Kobe Bean Bryant
More wisdom from the Black Mamba — GET OVER YOURSELF.
Although Kobe is talking about this in the context of sports, and, more specifically, about his four airballs (Kobe gave himself an extra airball in his quote!!) as a rookie, in the playoffs, against the Utah Jazz , it’s important to realize that one can, and often should, apply this mindset to many aspects of their own life.
How many times have you not done something that you really wanted to do because you feared “what other people would think?” How many times have you worried about “looking foolish” to some unnamed people? How often have you felt self-conscious because you thought people may be looking at you/talking about you (i.e. laughing at you)?
Get over yourself — you (and none of us) are that important.
It may be hard to realize when the sometimes overpowering emotions of fear (of judgment, of looking foolish, etc.) and anxiety take over, but the reality is, in most cases, no one really cares what you’re doing. For example, you can wear the most “outrageous” outfit and a passerby may have a snap reaction (“what is wrong with that person?! or “wow, how cool!”), but, after that, that passerby invariably retreats back into their own thoughts and worries. Simply put, everyone is too worried about their own life to really care if someone else looks “foolish” or “embarrassing” (or any other adjective you choose).
Now, look, there are certain things where people will care. For example, if you take or damage our basketball cards(!), we’ll care — A LOT. But for the vast majority of things in life — whether it’s public speaking, getting on the dance floor at a wedding or leaving a “prestigious” job for a more fulfilling (but less glamorous) one — other people, at some fundamental level, don’t really care what you do or how you look — they aren’t thinking about you. Remember, if we see you on the dance floor, we aren’t judging how you look…we’re too busy making sure we look okay!
To better develop this mindset, one trick we’ve found helpful — when you’re stuck in the anxiety of fear of judgment (i.e. “I’ll look stupid if I post that YouTube video!”) — is to take a few, focused deep breaths, interrupting your thought patterns and taking your mind off the fear momentarily. Then, consciously asking yourself, “Who is ACTUALLY judging me and WHAT IS THE CONSEQUENCE of that judgment?”
You may realize that, in fact, no one is actually judging you and, if, by chance, they are, their judgment has nearly zero impact on your life.
Get over yourself and on to the next play!
We’re just getting started here and would love to get your feedback on how we can get better! Drop us a line at thetriangleand2@gmail.com and help spread the word!
— Ali K. & Coach Tailor (aka “THE TRIANGLE AND TWO GUYS”)
Ali Khan is a graduate of Harvard Law School; Amit Tailor is a graduate of Yale University and the video coordinator for Clemson University Men’s Basketball
Well done Amit!