Welcome to The Triangle and 2 — a newsletter dedicated to basketball analysis, the business of sports and self improvement!
“There are no obstacles, there are only opportunities.” — Pat Riley
THE TRIANGLE…
Jokers Wild
Until recently, few people knew how invested the Denver Nuggets scouting department was in the international market. But it’s hard to keep it a secret when they’ve drafted so well, especially when it comes to international players, finding gems like Nikola Jokic in the middle of the second round. Make no mistake, “Joker” played for international powerhouse KK Mega Basket in Serbia, so it wasn’t like he was a totally unknown commodity; this team has been the home to many future NBA players, including Boban Marjanovic (Mavericks), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot (Nets) and Goga Bitadze (Pacers). Jokic was also at the 2014 Nike Hoop Summit — an annual event that attracts the attention of every NBA scouting department (The crazy part is that he wasn’t even the best player on a team that featured Karl Anthony-Towns (Timberwolves), Emmanuel Mudiay (Jazz), and (his future Nuggets teammate) Jamal Murray!).
Coming into the NBA, the knocks on Jokic centered around his conditioning and athleticism (or lack thereof). What no one could have foreseen was the insane passing, incredibly gifted footwork, and the ability to make the most impossible shots look routine. Jokic is the most unique player we’ve ever seen in the NBA and, yes, we stand by this claim.
We believe the inside-out punch in Jokic’s game is the starting point for his “unicorn” status. Even before he slimmed down, his post game has been a lethal combination of brute force, balance, and patience. Per Second Spectrum, Jokic led the league with 731 post ups this season and ranked 5th in points per possession at 1.011 (minimum 300 post ups). The only players above him, in order, were LeBron James, Joel Embiid, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kawhi Leonard.
When we think of pick and rolls, we typically think of a guard or wing being the ball handler and a big as the screener — we also tend to think that the big is only allowed to rumble to the rim after setting the screen. With more stretch bigs spacing the floor and popping for 3’s now, we’re seeing an increasing number of bigs playing away from the rim. In that spirit, Denver has inverted their thinking (and the league is copycatting!), having their guard set ball screens for Jokic — something that was on full-display during the Nuggets run to this year’s Western Conference Finals. In fact, this season, Jokic was the ball handler in 291 picks (1st among centers, per Second Spectrum) — the next closest guys were Kevin Love with 71 and Bam Adebayo with 70 picks as the ball handler.
Using Jokic in this fashion highlights and maximizes his insane playmaking ability. If you switch a guard onto him, you’re toast! If he doesn’t roast the guard on a post up, your big is probably in a closeout against a speedy guard or twitchy wing (never something we like to see on defense as coaches!). If the guard tries to stop Jokic’s drive, you’ve got a wide open 3 on a throwback. Back off and try to get through it? Even as a big defending him, you may get roasted. Double team? Go ask the Clippers and Jazz how that worked out! Denver’s off-ball movement, when they’re clicking offensively, is a clinic on cutting hard and screening well! Jokic feeds into this with his ability to see everything on the floor.
Take all of the above and now add an improving three-point shot, unstoppable one-foot fadeaway jumpers and full-court passes in rhythm from rebounds and we really have the most unique player in the league! Enjoy the video!
In The Zone — Part I
If you’ve been watching the NBA Playoffs and Finals, you’ve no doubt seen the significant increase in the number of teams deploying zone defenses. This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise — zone defenses, which have been allowed in the NBA since the 2001-02 season, have slowly shed their “gimmicky” label and become more popular recently.
Zone defenses come in a variety of flavors — 2-3, 3-2, 1-3-1, Box & 1, etc. — and we tend to see a lot more zone defense in college basketball, where it’s been both allowed and accepted for as long as anyone can remember. Just take a look at Syracuse, who has been playing their 2-3 zone since 1976 when Jim Boeheim became head coach. In fact, for readers that don’t watch as much college hoops, there are actually many teams that almost exclusively play some form of zone defense.
Generally speaking, college offenses against the zone tend to be poorly spaced and (usually) have slow ball reversals, minimal pass and shot fakes, and poor player movement — in other words, all the things you need to do to keep zone defenders moving (and, in the process, creating a good shot for your team). As a result, offenses can get bogged down and become indecisive. To illustrate, per available Second Spectrum data, there have been an average of 403 passes per game against Syracuse over the past 2 seasons — which is 139 passes per game more than the average for all of college basketball! As an aside, some of this excessive passing is specific to the proficiency of the Syracuse zone (perhaps a topic for another post!) — however the point remains: zone defenses in college basketball can make offenses significantly more deliberative.
Moreover, as the college game tends to have less skilled (vis a vis the NBA) three-point shooting, and the fact that certain zone defenses better contest three-point attempts than man-to-man defense (or even take them away completely), it makes sense why we see a lot of variations of zone played in college.
In the NBA, per Second Spectrum data starting with the 2017-18 season, we’ve seen almost 7.5x the amount of zone defense played this season than in 2017-18. In 2017-18, only 741 possessions of zone defense were played — contrast that to the more than 5500 possessions played this season (and the more to come after the way the Miami Heat have used it successfully throughout the playoffs).
Why the significant increase in NBA zone defense usage?
We have a couple of thoughts on this — especially after talking to a few assistant coaches that gameplan against this stuff. As the NBA shot clock is 24 seconds, when teams initially see a zone defense that they either haven’t seen since their college days or didn’t get to prepare for, the first few seconds will generally be a little bit of confusion and looking over at coaches to see what to do. Wasting precious time can bog down an offense, making it more likely that the possession ends up in a shot that is difficult/contested or rushed to beat the shot clock. Most zones tend to only stay in tact for a few passes, causing even more confusion as the defense becomes man to man during a possession. Additionally, zones make the ball and players move more — more passes/decisions = more chances to make a mistake. We tend to see good shooters become hesitant as teams sometimes “pass up a good shot for a great shot”, only to take a challenged shot against time anyway.
Let’s delve into some zone defense looks, starting with a classic 2-3 look — with guards at the top, wings and big man on the bottom. Our example here is the aforementioned Syracuse zone. What’s unique about them is that the 2 guards across the top are usually huge with close to 7’0” wingspans — this discourages passes to the middle, considered the soft spot in the zone. If the ball gets to the middle, it’s the big man’s responsibility to shut down anything toward the basket; the wings and guards are so good at finding shooters that the best offense is a 1 on 1 matchup in the middle (the offensive player against a defender that is usually a 7 footer with great rim protecting ability). Even though the video below contains many made shots, notice how much ball movement/good decision making is required for each basket, how well the zone defense challenges both shots in the paint and 3’s and, frankly, just how long and rangy these guys are. No wonder the scores against Syracuse are so low!
One downside of the zone defense: offensive rebounding. This usually results from the fact that there aren’t set matchups and defenders are responsible for “blocking out” an area, instead of a particular player.
The Miami Heat also play a 2-3 zone, but you might notice something a little bit different from — the Heat invert the position of their wings and guards. They like their bigger, rangier wings at the top of the zone and their guards to cover the bottom and sides. When they’re operating this at a high level, what would normally be huge driving gaps close quickly. These guys move really well and with a sense of urgency unmatched by most defenders in a zone. Though it’s hard to hear on broadcasts, their communication and connectedness shows up by the way they rotate to these gaps — it presents the illusion that there is no driving lane! Take a look at these possessions from the Eastern Conference Finals; even when Boston does get a quality look, it’s well challenged or after so much ball movement!
Now, let’s take a look at a 3-2 zone — which can come in a couple of varieties. Traditionally, we see this played with 3 guards along the top and 2 forwards or bigs down low. Sometimes it can be a “matchup look” where it morphs based on the way the offense looks (i.e. depending on the offense, the 3-2 may become more of a 2-3 on certain possessions). This ability to match the offense’s look can really help a defense make it more difficult for the offense to get the ball into the middle and can also mess up the offense’s rhythm. Take a look at how we at Clemson have played zone defense (successfully!) over the years — also included: a couple clips of good zone offense!
Coach Tailor got a chance to spend some time at the Toronto Raptors training camp two seasons ago — where Head Coach Nick Nurse (yes, the same Nick Nurse that used the Box and 1 defense against the Golden State Warriors in the 2019 NBA Finals) is known for his innovation and willingness to experiment. The Raptors practiced their version of the 3-2 zone; they put their longest/rangiest guy at the very top (i.e. the middle man of the three defenders up top) and let him cover the top and anything going to the middle. It’s a lot easier to do this well when you have Kawhi Leonard or Pascal Siakam! Some hard and fast principles that were noted — once the ball hit the middle, it became man-to man-principles with the perimeter guys sprinting out to shooters and a 1-on-1 battle in the middle. Take a look at these examples of how Toronto’s 3-2 looks with a huge wing at the point of the zone.
Bottom line: you’re going to continue to see more zone defense in the NBA; not only are NBA coaches smart, they are a lot more daring and experimental than ever before.
Next week we’ll take a look at other variations of zone defense and see why they’re useful and what their weaknesses are.
The 2023 NBA Most Valuable Player
As we made clear a couple of weeks ago, we’re all in on Ja Morant of the Memphis Grizzlies — aka 2019-2020 NBA Rookie of the Year Ja Morant. And sometimes known as: future NBA Most Valuable Player Ja Morant.
Now, let’s be clear, no one was saying these things about Morant coming out of high school in 2017 — he was a lightly recruited, unranked player. You would expect the #2 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft to have been highly recruited by the Dukes and Kentuckys of the world. But before Murray State offered him a scholarship, his only offers were from South Carolina State and Maryland-Eastern Shore.
After a good freshman year at Murray State — 12.7 PPG/6.5 RPG/6.3 APG — Morant took his game to new heights. Following a spectacular summer performance at the Chris Paul CP3 Elite Guard Camp, Morant — averaging 24.5 PPG/5.7 RPG/10 APG — led Murray State to a 28-5 record and a trip to the NCAA Tournament, upsetting Marquette in the first round (Morant’s triple double was the first triple double in the tournament since Draymond Green (Michigan State) in 2012). Skyrocketing on NBA teams’ draft boards, the guy no one heard of a couple years earlier was viewed as a future superstar. And he’s lived up to expectations so far, winning Rookie of the Year and nearly leading a young, exciting Grizzlies team to a playoff berth.
We think much greater things are ahead for Morant and the Grizzlies — so what makes us bullish on Morant’s future?
Standing 6’3’’, with a 6’7’’ wingspan, and possessing a vertical jump of over 40 inches, Morant is a spectacular athlete; a blur in the open floor and a strong finisher at the rim — 53% on 694 attempts in the paint, good for 11th in the league, putting him in the company of Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis, among others. Whether it’s dribbling by defenders with his speed and ball handling or using his combination of length, jumping ability and strength to go through and over defenders, Morant can score in so many ways. And while Morant needs to improve on his three-point shooting (33.5%), he’s enough of a threat where defenders can’t cheat and only play him to drive to the basket. When you factor in his passing ability (keep in mind, Morant ended his college career as the only player ever to average at least 20 PPG and 10 APG in a single season), it’s easy to see that Morant is an offensive force that is going to devastate NBA defenses for the next decade.
Don’t take our word for any of this, just take a look at the video below, showing the all-around brilliance of Ja Morant. What really stands out is how Morant is “playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers” — he routinely sees multiple moves ahead of defensive rotations, which is death for opposing teams and coaches. Reading pick and roll coverages takes time and is usually one of the hardest things for young point guards to learn, especially in the NBA where the speed and athleticism of defenders make passing lanes and open shots evaporate in the blink of an eye. Morant, however, does this like a 10 year veteran, and a really good one at that.
When the Portland Trail Blazers “Ice” Morant’s screen (0:26 second mark of the video) on the side (his defender, Damian Lillard, jumps to take away the middle and Jusuf Nurkic, who is guarding the screener (Jonas Valančiūnas), creeps up to the level), Morant is so shifty that with Valančiūnas changing the angle of the screen, he’s able to snake the screen and bait a helpless Carmelo Anthony into thinking Kyle Anderson is back cutting when in fact it’s just a fake — resulting in an uncontested corner 3 for the Grizzlies. This is akin to good quarterbacks “moving safeties with their eyes.”
Morant is even more dangerous on double drag screens in transition (2 guys screening up high on the floor — usually the 4 and 5 man). In the clip below (0:35 second mark of the video), the Milwaukee Bucks’ Brook Lopez does the right thing by playing the “Drop” coverage against Morant’s drive and even goes to challenge the attempt at the rim, but Morant sees a move ahead, knowing that a big’s responsibility is to protect the rim, and dumps it down for an easier shot for Valančiūnas.
Defensively, Morant’s speed and athleticism are his biggest assets — he can afford to overhelp on this LeBron James drive (0:44 second mark of the video), yet recover quickly enough to the gap and steal the pass (even some of the best defenders aren’t able to do this well), starting a Grizzlies fastbreak.
This is only the beginning. The only question that remains: what season does he win that MVP award?
…AND 2
I Only Got $50 — Can I Invest In A Michael Jordan Rookie Card?
Wait, what? How does this make sense?
It makes a lot of sense…if you use Rally. Founded in 2017, and with about 200,000 users, Rally is an app that lets users buy and sell equity shares in sports memorabilia and other collectibles (such as comic books, video games, rare books, wine, vintage watches, handbags and collector cars). In other words, Rally makes it easier to own (through shares — like stocks) and profit from rare, high-worth collectibles. Maybe you can’t buy that Michael Jordan rookie card by yourself — but maybe you can together with hundreds of your internet friends!
So, how does this all happen? Well, Rally goes through the following process:
Step 1 —> Sourcing, verifying, and acquiring noteworthy collectables (e.g. the 1909 Honus Wagner T206 tobacco baseball card) — the collectables remain in Rally’s possession, either at their New York City showroom or in one of their secure storage facilities in Delaware and Pennsylvania (investors can often receive special visiting privileges)
Step 2 —> Turning that collectable into “a company” (and going through the necessary regulatory hurdles) and splitting it into “equity shares”
Step 3 —> Opening an “Initial Offering” on their platform where investors can purchase shares & build their portfolio (as Rally claims, “A 21st century portfolio, for everyone”)
Step 4 —> After 90 days, allowing investors (in-app) to either sell their shares or add to their position during “trading windows” (which typically occur every 30 to 60 days)
The shares in any one asset, again similar to the stock market, can go up or down in value (reflected by the prices at which shares are bought and sold during the aforementioned trading windows). And while Rally aims to hold collectables for the long term, depending on investor sentiment and market dynamics, they may liquidate an asset — in which case, the proceeds get paid to the “shareholders.”
As one would imagine, Rally is not the only company offering fractional ownership of high-priced collectables (for example, Collectable just launched its app in September, offering the chance to invest in shares of a 1953 Topps Mickey Mantle card rated Gem Mint 10 — one of only two in existence and worth $2.5M). However, Rally is undeniably a major player in this burgeoning space, having just raised $17M from investors (bringing their total funding to $27M) — including Reddit co-founder Alexis Ohanian. More than just an investor, Ohanian is actually a Rally user, stating, “I’ve been investing in collectibles on Rally for nearly two years…the first platform that has made investing in my passions as easy as buying/selling stock.”
While we can’t say what the future holds for Rally, it’s abundantly clear that making rare collectables more widely accessible/affordable is an interesting trend that we’ll have to keep an eye on going forward. As Rally co-founder Rob Petrozzo says, “Our main goal was always to give access to everyone in this new world of passion-led investing.”
“I’m a big believer in ‘if you don’t dream it, you can’t become it’.” — Earvin “Magic” Johnson
If you don’t dream it, you can’t become it.
Undoubtedly, we’ve all heard variations of this statement. In fact, it’s so common to hear this phrase that, at this point, it’s become relatively cliché — often said, rarely impactful. Something you might read on a motivational Instagram post (#ifyoudontdreamityoucantbecomeit).
But this doesn’t have to be the case. We just need to unpack the phrase to give it some real meaning. To make it something we can and should apply to our own lives. A dose of “Magic” to better shape our own reality!
“Dreaming,” in this context, simply means to clearly envision a desired result, with great specificity. Knowing exactly what you want in life is critical — it allows you to align your actions (e.g. daily routines) and decisions (e.g. should I take job X or job Y) with your true objectives. For example, a goal of “I’m going to lose weight” isn’t nearly as helpful as “I’m going to lose 30 lbs in 6 months;” the behaviors and habits needed to lose an undefined amount of weight differ from that of losing 30 lbs in 6 months. The more clear you are with what you want to happen, the more you know what you should and need to do (and, therefore, don’t waste valuable time with behaviors or decisions that don’t move you towards your goals — or, even worse, take you further away from what you want!).
Moreover, dreaming and clearly envisioning your desired result taps into the power of possibility. One cannot achieve something they don’t believe is possible — if you can’t see yourself in your dream job, dream city, dream relationship, dream WHATEVER, it won’t happen. Why? Because when things get difficult and patience and perseverance are required, you won’t do what’s necessary to get the desired outcome (“this is really hard and who knows if it’s even possible, so why waste my time even trying?!”). Simply put, your concrete vision will give you vital inspiration during the inevitable challenging times.
So, next time you hear “if you don’t dream it, you can’t become it,” let it serve as a reminder to be clear what you want in life and to regularly picture yourself getting what you want (e.g. daily visualization routine).
After all, it works for Magic Johnson…
We’re just getting started here and would love to get your feedback on how we can get better! Drop us a line at thetriangleand2@gmail.com and help spread the word!
— Ali K. & Coach Tailor (aka “THE TRIANGLE AND 2 GUYS”)
Ali Khan is a graduate of Harvard Law School; Amit Tailor is a graduate of Yale University and the video coordinator for Clemson University Men’s Basketball