Welcome to The Triangle and 2 - a newsletter dedicated to basketball analysis, the business of sports and self improvement!
“We’re all talented in some way, shape or form and have a passion. So once you find out what that is, just exhaust all efforts to better yourself every day in that regard.” — Stephen Curry
We need to start this week off by thanking a friend of the program and just a flat out basketball junkie, Fran Fraschilla of ESPN, for sharing our stuff on the Twitterscape! We love the great and positive feedback we’ve been getting and want to keep spreading the love around the globe!
THE TRIANGLE…
Remember the Warriors?
It’s easy to forget about the Golden State Warriors, especially since this season has felt like an eternity. It’s the first time since 2011-12 that they’ve missed the playoffs. Injuries — Klay Thompson (knee injury — out for season), Stephen Curry (broken hand — played only 5 games) and Draymond Green (missed 22 games), combined with the loss of Kevin Durant and trading D’Angelo Russell made the Warriors rely heavily on rookies Eric Paschall and Jordan Poole, and a young journeyman in Marquese Chriss. Acquiring Andrew Wiggins from the Minnesota Timberwolves gave them a veteran presence, but not enough to prevent a 15-50 season.
A 15-50 season allowed the Warriors enough lottery ball combinations to get the 2nd overall pick in the upcoming draft and a chance to get healthy from the wear and tear of the previous five seasons. We expect the Warriors to be title contenders again next year (barring unforeseen injuries)! We’re excited to see the Warriors incredible offense again!
In 2014, Kirk Goldsberry summarized how the Warriors offense worked under Mark Jackson, a clinic on off-ball screening, cutting and player movement. He called this “Splash Engineering”, and was on to something so early that it’s become a metric called the “gravity score”. What this means is that just the presence of Curry and Thompson being on the floor requires help defenders to play closer to them when they’re off the ball, such that it opens up stuff for other teammates (driving lanes, favorable matchups, etc).
We look forward most to seeing the Warriors’ inside-out game again. With many claiming the post game is going extinct, it’s refreshing to see that Golden State ranks 3rd in total post ups and 5th in post ups per game since 2013-14 (when Second Spectrum began tracking data for the league). Here’s how they’ve ranked in post ups per game since Steve Kerr took over as head coach — 20th, 7th, 7th, 3rd, 3rd, and even 5th this season. A look at who’s been manning the center position may make the numbers seem surprising; Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut, Kevon Looney, Jordan Bell, Marquese Chriss and Festus Ezeli — not exactly post up behemoths we saw in the Shaq and Olajuwon era.
The Warriors post up attacks aren’t just for the bigs to back down and use their brute force to score in the paint. Their bigs are astute passers and readers of cuts and screens. We call that a “split action” — the ball gets fed to the post and the passer and nearby player(s) on the perimeter screen for each other. When teams have great chemistry, these things become intuitive — players learn how to read and cut off each other. The Dynasty Warriors have become so good at springing Curry and Thompson (and Durant for 3 seasons) free for 3’s and layups with great screening and fast-paced cutting. When defenses sell out to take away 3’s for their flamethrowers, the slips to the rim become wide open. This happens at such a frantic pace that it’s hard to switch all the off-ball action.
The 2016-17 Spurs might be one of the only teams that was able to switch all the off-ball action with some semblance of competency and, even then, it’s still a challenge over 24 seconds!
Let’s not forget that guards can post and be playmakers in these split actions as well. The Warriors have been elite when their guards post up, to the tune of ranking 3rd in guard post up volume (2.5 guard post ups per game) and 5th in scoring efficiency. Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston were especially dangerous as posters because of their lethal turnaround jump shots.
The “gravity” of Curry and Thompson was missing this year and made all this stuff ineffective. Look for them to come back to it whenever next season starts!
In The Zone - Part 2
Last week, we discussed the increasing prevalence of zone defense in the NBA, and a few zone concepts. Building upon that, this week, we wanted to go over a few more zone defense concepts — why they’re useful and what their weaknesses can be.
Let’s start with a 1-3-1 zone. This is a high-risk/high-reward defense that looks to force turnovers and rush shots by creating chaos and a flurry of ball pressure and scrambling. A team will put their best athlete at the top, usually a long and rangy wing, with the next line of defense usually being a guard, big, and wing. The idea here is heavy pressure along the 45 degree lines to the rim, the so called “melt-down” areas where three defenders converge to the ball. The bottom guy in this zone is a guard and his responsibility is anything below the free throw line, usually against a big — there’s also the responsibility to close out to corner shooters and apply insane ball pressure.
In the video below, the first clip shows Clemson (successfully) using a 1-3-1, with all five defenders scrambling to deflect passes, throwing off Ohio State for a possession (keep in mind, when using this defense, rotations and closeouts can be long and if the offense has a savvy passer and a lot of shooting, it becomes hard to cover everything). In the second clip, Florida shows a 1-3-1 on a side out of bounds after a time out (something we never saw on film leading up to the game), but Clemson executes its zone offense to get an uncontested dunk. Which gets to another point: in addition to the middle being a weakness in a zone, it’s a big no-no to allow passes up the sideline and put the bottom guy into a long closeout while leaving a big uncovered under the rim.
Xavier, under head coach Chris Mack, played a unique version of the 1-3-1 zone that was actually a 1-1-3 with similar principles. This was really effective and it started with the defender at the top — JP Macura was a complete pest and so good at pick-pocketing the ball from handlers that it led to easy points for Xavier (third clip in the video). In the fourth video clip, we see (again) the weakness in the zone, as the ball gets to the middle, the entire zone collapses and can’t account for the corner cut. Though we don’t see it in the video, ball screening the top guy in the zone is effective because it puts the the next line of defense in a bind — a lot of catch & shoot 3’s go up this way.
Perhaps the most infamous “junk” zone defense is the Box & 1 look. This got a lot more attention after Toronto Raptors head coach Nick Nurse broke it out in the 2019 NBA Finals — we think it even caught the broadcasters off-guard. Fast forward to this season and it was seen again in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. To say it took the Celtics Point Guard, Kemba Walker, out of rhythm is an understatement. The Raptors denied and chased Kemba around, making other guys become playmakers in a 4 on 4 situation. And even with the a hyper-efficient Daniel Theis and blazing hot Marcus Smart (36% from 3 in the Toronto and Miami series), containing Kemba was worth the trade off for Toronto.
We also see a ton of zone defense on baseline and sideline out situations in college, a trend that’s becoming increasingly popular in the NBA. The Portland Trail Blazers (among other teams now) situationally show a 2-3 look on baseline outs. For those of us that follow college hoops, Syracuse, North Carolina, and Florida State all play a 1-3-1 look on baseline out situations with the 5 man defending the inbounder and trap the first pass if it goes into the ball side corner.
Some defenses start in a zone and stay in it after the ball is inbounded, and other times teams will match up man to man. A lot of this varies from team to team and game to game— Syracuse plays zone 100% of the time no matter what. This can change in scouting a particular opponent/player or to take away a specific set of plays. We have a feeling we will see more of these wrinkles in the NBA in the seasons to come.
The Triangle & 2 All Bubble Team - Part 1
Now that the 2019-20 NBA season is over, we can fairly assess and name an All Bubble Team, which we’ll be rolling out in three parts. Narrowing this down to five players was difficult, fun, and an exercise in detailed research and film study. For the sake of brevity, we only named a First Team, which excludes some otherworldly performers. Things that went into consideration: statistical performance, how far into the playoffs a player’s team advanced, and how much a player impacted winning. What we aimed for is a marriage between the numbers and the eye test.
Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks):
Luka would be a junior in college right now, think about that. We believe Luka is a future MVP and this was the brightest stage for him to showcase his talent since dominating the 2017 EuroBasket. That he could singlehandedly take the loaded Clippers to 6 games was incredible. Before the Kristaps Porziņģis injury, Dallas was already down Dwight Powell — a very competent pick and roll/lob partner for Luka. Willie Cauley-Stein didn’t make it to the Bubble and Jalen Brunson was out with shoulder surgery. Luka is elite at making the best lemonade out of whatever lemons he has to work with — Tim Hardaway Jr., Boban Marjanovic, Maxi Kleiber, Seth Curry, Dorian Finney-Smith (another Triangle & 2 favorite), and Trey Burke! No disrespect to the rest of the players in the league, but making the playoffs and being super close to the upset with that supporting cast is part of what makes Luka as special as he is.
Pre-Bubble Luka was putting up 28.7PPG/9.3RPG/8.7APG while shooting 46.1% from the field and 31.4% from 3. To finish out the regular season, Luka in the Bubble upped his play to the tune of 30PPG/10.1RPG/9.7APG on similar shooting numbers — 47.9% from the field and 30% from 3.
Playoff Luka? 31PPG/9.8RPG/8.7APG — on 50% from the field and 36.4% from 3. His signature move? The step-back 3. The NBA average on step back 3’s this season was 33.9%. Playoff Luka went 11/27 (40.7%!) on step-back 3’s in the playoffs, per Second Spectrum. The other 4 players that attempted more than 20 step-backs — Harden, Murray, Jayson Tatum, and LeBron James — did so over at least twice as many games as Luka.
We can’t end the Luka discussion without talking about his passing. The Mavericks had the highest rated offensive efficiency in the history of the league this year and a lot of that has to do with his wizardry with the ball. It is our humble opinion that he will be the best pick and roll reader and passer of all time (and we’ve seen plenty of Milos Teodosic highlights). He was 4th in assists this year (just his 2nd year in the league) behind LeBron, Nikola Jokic, and Harden, and 3rd in potential assists per game (16.7) behind only LeBron (18.3) and Trae Young (17.3), per Second Spectrum.
Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat):
It isn’t farfetched to say that Kawhi’s 4-bouncer last year altered the roster-makeup of several teams for the foreseeable future. Two such teams include the 76ers and the Heat — both of whom employed Jimmy Butler over the past two seasons. In the Toronto series last year, we saw Jimmy become the ‘takeover a game guy/I want the ball for the win’ guy. We saw even more of that this season, especially in the playoffs. What’s more impressive is the supporting cast Butler has done this with. Last year, he was the best player on a team with Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, and Tobias Harris. This season, he took a supporting cast of Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Kelly Olynyk, Meyers Leonard, Tyler Herro, and Andre Iguodala within two wins of a championship.
Part of this is the identity and culture of the Heat. Work hard, be in the best shape, and give it 100% effort 100% of the time. Being soft is not an option, and Butler (and the rest of the players there) embodies this. We all know the back story — the 30th pick who could barely crack the rotation to top 10 (arguably top 5?) NBA superstar. Not being wanted by his family as a child, starting in junior college, etc. Butler does so many little things well that coaches go bonkers over, but are integral to winning. Two things to hone in on here — the ability to finish difficult attempts in the paint and defending the best players every night.
Dominating the paint — Butler took 648 attempts in the paint this season and shot a blistering 54.5%, good for 29th in the league, per Second Spectrum (minimum 500 attempts). Given the difficulty of these shots and the type of defenders who challenge them, this is impressive. The other part that goes along with this is how often he gets to the free throw line. Butler ranked 5th in free throw attempts this year — only behind Harden, Giannis, Luka, and Trae Young. Getting to the line puts the other team in a bind — foul trouble, scoring while the clock is stopped, and being able to set your defense (something Miami was really good at). The back foot pivot he uses in the third clip is something that coaches teach everywhere at every level!
Guarding the best player — and he’s not afraid to do this on a nightly basis for as long as it takes. Round 1 — TJ Warren, who was on a tear from the beginning of the NBA restart had the defensive clamps tightened on him immediately. In 153 matchups with Butler as the primary defender, Warren mustered 22 points, and even then it wasn’t easy. What’s even more impressive is that Butler did this without fouling him. In 28 matchups against Giannis, he held him to just 6 points. While LeBron was able to score a ton (and let’s be honest, LeBron pulled all the stops out this year and would have scored on prime Bill Russell), Butler forced him into 5 turnovers per 100 matchups. Butler has a lot of pride in being a lock down and fearless defender, and it’s hard as heck to score against him.
…AND 2
Work(out) From Home — Strength Training With “Digital Weights”
The New Home “Weight Room?”
Speaking of Stephen Curry, he, along with other high-profile investors (Paul George of the LA Clippers, Bobby Wagner of the Seattle Seahawks, professional golfer Michelle Wie and Amazon’s Alexa Fund), recently invested in Tonal’s $110M funding round. COVID-19 has caused a boom in the at-home fitness market, and that’s clearly been reflected by companies such as Peloton (equipment sales up 200% last quarter) and Mirror (acquired by Lululemon for $500M). Add Tonal to that list (10x growth in sales since the comparable period last year).
Tonal (“An Entire Gym. In Your Home.”) is a device the size of a flat-screen TV that has a fold-out bench and adjustable “arms” that support both upper and lower body movements (up to 200 lbs of resistance); offering streaming strength training workouts led by a personal trainer, not to mention streaming cardio and yoga workouts (similar to Mirror), it’s essentially a “Peloton for weight-lifting.” It’s size and convenience made it popular among some NBA teams in the recent Orlando playoff bubble. Tonal also created a VIP program for professional athletes, expediting shipping for players who lost access to workout facilities during quarantine and urgently needed some form of training equipment. Curry, on the other hand, bought a Tonal a couple of years ago under a fake name — taking to it so much, that he actually approached the company about being an investor.
Tonal — The Size of a Flat-Screen TV
Maybe you’re wondering: how do you generate up to 200 pounds of resistance with no weights?
Tonal uses an “electromagnetic resistance engine” to generate resistance — a concept that’s used both to propel motors in electric cars and levitate high speed trains in Japan (ok, that’s enough physics for today!). Tonal’s resistance engine consists of computer chips, coils that generate an electromagnetic field and magnets that let you “fight against” that electromagnetic field as you pull/push on a cable. In other words, Tonal’s technology mathematically models “the physics” of a traditional weight stack and digitally manipulates the electromagnetic field to make it feel like a weight stack.
This is way more efficient than “normal” free weights or weight machines. The digital weight system is continuously measuring things such as speed, acceleration, force, power, and range of motion, adjusting thousands of times per second to maximize the efficiency of each repetition. And, with these tracked stats available to you, you can see how you’re really doing; it also allows Tonal to recommend the ideal weight you should be using for each exercise to truly push yourself towards growth and progress.
Perhaps Stephen Curry is right when he says that Tonal is “revolutionizing how people will work out now and in the future." Only time will tell, but with many gyms still either closed or operating at reduced capacity, and people getting increasingly comfortable with working out at home, perhaps Tonal truly is the “weight room” of the future.
"Just be the best version of yourself in anything that you do. You don’t have to live anybody else’s story." — Stephen Curry
Be the best version of YOURSELF — advice that is perhaps more relevant now than ever before.
In a world overrun by Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, and Tik Tok (just to name a few…), it’s never been easier to compare yourself to someone else. Now, comparison isn’t always a bad thing, and it can absolutely motivate you to get in better shape, work harder, etc. But the sheer amount of content that we are all bombarded with daily can lead to excessive comparison — with both people we know and those we don’t personally know. Safe to say, when you see a social media post, it’s usually someone’s “highlight;” you don’t see what their life “really looks like” (let us know when someone posts a picture of themselves editing a spreadsheet on their laptop at 2AM with the hashtag #livingmybestlife).
Why does this matter?
Because if you’re constantly, maybe even obsessively, comparing your life, with its invariable ups and downs, to someone else’s highlights, it’s a recipe for unhappiness. You’re chasing something that’s not even real — it’s inherently unattainable. Not to mention, some things are always going to be unattainable to each one of us— no matter how hard either of us tried, we weren’t going to be NBA players — and that’s okay! Life isn’t about trying to replicate someone else’s story, or living a story that you THINK you’re supposed to live, it’s about living your very unique, very individual story. It’s about being the best version of yourself — being the best you can possibly be! Because, at the end of the day, all any of us can really be is the best version of ourselves.
Living in a culture that puts celebrity on a pedestal and encourages us all to “keep up with the Joneses” (you need to get the newest iPhone, everyone you know has one!), it’s imperative that we not beat ourselves up if we “don’t measure up” in some way to someone else. Instead, take the time to ask yourself, “Am I doing the absolute best I can?”
If not? Get to work!
If you are? Keep up the great work!
We’re just getting started here and would love to get your feedback on how we can get better! Drop us a line at thetriangleand2@gmail.com and help spread the word!
— Ali K. & Coach Tailor (aka “THE TRIANGLE AND TWO GUYS”)
Ali Khan is a graduate of Harvard Law School; Amit Tailor is a graduate of Yale University and the video coordinator for Clemson Men’s Basketball