Welcome to The Triangle and Two - a newsletter dedicated to the game of basketball, the business of sports and living life better!
"Success comes from knowing that you did your best to become the best that you are capable of becoming." — Coach John Wooden (UCLA Men’s Basketball, 1948-1975)
THE TRIANGLE…
Coaching During A Pandemic
March 11, 2020. Everything seemed normal. We just won a game — there were plenty of fans in the arena — and we were laser focused on our next opponent. Though we were aware generally of COVID-19, it wasn’t something we were actually thinking about too much. Life was moving forward. Until…it wasn’t.
The Golden State Warriors announced that fans were no longer going to be allowed at games. Rudy Gobert of the Utah Jazz tested positive for COVID-19. The NBA suspended its season. The next morning, we learned that, going forward, fans were not going be allowed at our conference tournament games. And, finally, less than 10 minutes before tip-off, we learned our game and tournament was cancelled. The entire college basketball season, including the NCAA Tournament, was called off shortly thereafter.
What’s it been like to be a coach since then?
At a personal level, I made sure to take advantage of the rare break from the grind — a typical non-gameday consists of an early start with film breakdown, weight lifting and staff meetings, mid-afternoon practices and post-practice film review with the coaching staff where we go through the good and bad from that day’s practice. Being newly married, I got a chance to spend some amazing quality time with my wife. I managed to become a better cook (I’ll be honest, I never imagined making homemade pasta, but there I was, watching YouTube videos on how to use a KitchenAid mixer and pasta roller/cutting attachment!). And, I won’t lie, the lack of late night film work and travel helped me lose 30 pounds!
On the basketball coaching front, as a staff, we made sure to constantly stay in touch regarding the state of our program. We made sure to take advantage of the down time, taking on projects that ranged from analyzing every pick and roll we defended to understanding how we generated every three point attempt during the season. Being a highly analytical and visual coaching staff, we believe in creating easy to reference charts and infographics that serve as constant reminders as to what we did/continue to do right (and why!) and what we did wrong (and what we need to do to prevent that from occurring again!). It is this detailed, highly-analytical self-evaluation that allows us to constantly get better.
That said, the state of the world significantly altered recruiting activity — the lifeblood of every college program. Not only could we not travel to visit recruits, but we also weren’t able to see recruits play with the exception of a few streamed events. Usually, in the spring and summer, we’re focused on attending the top recruit showcases, especially the shoe circuit tournaments like Nike EYBL and Adidas Gauntlet. Without being able to see recruits in person, it’s really difficult to evaluate just how good someone truly is. As a result, what we’re seeing is earlier commitments, reclassifying, and way less familiarity between coaching staffs and recruits. In short, more coaches and recruits are taking leaps of faith in the recruiting process.
After several months of waiting and multiple negative COVID-19 tests, we are now finally back to work. We are required to wear masks anywhere and everywhere inside the building; we are, and will continue to be, tested repeatedly as our season unfolds. We are tested weekly at the moment (and have been getting the saliva test — much more pleasant than nasal swabs!) and, logically, the testing frequency will increase as we move into more practices and actual games.
Workouts/practices are done with a maximum of 10 people on the court, including staff members — meaning several of us watch practice from afar. Players are working out and playing in masks. Staff and team meetings are now done outside of our normal meeting spaces and into more open areas of our facility.
I’ll be honest, I can’t tell you when it will go back to “normal,” but, until then, we’re going to continue to adapt and make sure we keep moving forward as a program. We have high expectations for the upcoming season — it’s our job to be ready, regardless of the circumstances, and to make sure we keep moving towards that goal!
-Coach Tailor
What does it mean to work on a basketball coaching staff?
When we meet new people (at least pre-pandemic), one of the first questions in every interaction is some form of “what do you do?”. When the answer to the question is “basketball coach at (insert name of team/university),” the reaction is usually, “oh wow that sounds so cool!,” but with a look that says, “what does that even mean?!” (Now, for clarity, while only one of us actually works as a basketball coach, we both have had very similar educational paths — which leads to puzzled looks when people learn that one of the two of us isn’t a lawyer, doctor, engineer, etc.)
So what does it mean to “work” as a basketball coach?
On a game broadcast, all you see are well-dressed (usually!) coaches with fresh haircuts yelling and writing a down a bunch of stuff. What you don’t see is all the behind the scenes stuff — as mentioned above, the hours of detailed film review, the never ending research projects about your own team, about opponents, about potential recruits, etc. Going further, there’s a ton of logistics to keep a program running smoothly; for example, making sure the technical equipment is working properly — meaning camera operations, managing student interns to help record and break down practice/game footage, making sure that coaches and players get the required film and data analysis in a timely manner, etc. In a lot of ways, it’s no different than any big company.
Other things that go unnoticed are little things like travel logistics, efficiently scheduling practice and shootaround times when you’re on the road, and even bus schedules, meal schedules, etc. Basically there is a ton of stuff and, again, like any other business, it takes a total team effort from top to bottom for things to run smoothly and efficiently.
From a game preparation standpoint, as much as possible, every tendency of every opposing player and coach is studied — including, and especially, play calls. Different programs have vastly different terminology for similar concepts, so it’s incumbent upon coaches to listen for verbal and visual cues when watching film — allowing them to better prepare players during the course of a game as to what’s potentially coming next. Coaching staffs look EVERYWHERE for these things — at the coaches, the players, the boards they write stuff down on, etc. It’s little edges like this that can help you win games one possession at a time.
So, while coaching has, like any other “job,” many unglamorous parts, it is very much a “fun” job. The highest of highs are exhilarating and the journey is unique and totally unpredictable!
Don’t listen to any naysayers — Giannis Antetokounmpo deserved Defensive Player of the Year!
Though it’s not popular right now to talk about the great things the Milwaukee Bucks and, more specifically, Giannis Antetokounmpo did this season, we wanted to remind folks why the Greek Freak was rightfully named NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
There were many great candidate to choose from, including Anthony Davis (LA Lakers), Rudy Gobert (Utah Jazz), Kawhi Leonard (LA Clippers), Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat) and Marcus Smart (Boston Celtics) — so why Giannis?
Per Second Spectrum tracking data, opponents shoot just 43.6% when Giannis is the closest defender, which, based on the types of shots taken, is about 7% below expected shooting percentages; this metric takes a few things into account: (1) the shooter, (2) the shot distance/location, (3) defender distance and (4) whether the shot was contested or not. By comparison, opponents shoot about 46% when Rudy Gobert is the closest defender, and about 50% when Bam Adebayo is the closest defender.
The Greek Freak’s defensive impact is even more evident in the restricted area, considered to be the easiest scoring area in the game. Again, per the Second Spectrum tracking data, players, on average, are shooting 15% below their expected shooting percentage when Giannis is protecting the basket. Really impressive for a two-way “big” that can play the wing and defend all 5 positions! For comparison — Gobert only impacts rim defense by about 0.4% and Adebayo only 4.3%.
To better illustrate Giannis’ impact, take a look at the two videos below. In the first video, his presence alone (note that he doesn’t even make an attempt to block the shot) alters the likely success of Patrick Beverley’s (LA Clippers) layup attempt — at release, Beverley only has a 45% chance to make the layup, which he misses. For reference, as seen in the second video, when Beverley makes a layup, his expected shot probability in the restricted area is usually around 67-68% (for what it’s worth, the average shot probability for the NBA in the restricted area is 65%). Here’s the point: Giannis, even without hard contests, makes shots around the rim insanely more difficult (i.e. the offensive player is in constant fear that Giannis is lurking to block the shot).
Ok, ok, ok — what about individual defense and matchups? Simply put, guys don’t shoot it well when Giannis is the primary defender in a matchup; per Second Spectrum, players shot 4% below their expected field goal percentages this season when Giannis was the assigned primary defender. By comparison — here are some other guys we think of as elite defenders — Kawhi Leonard (-1.6%), LeBron James (-2.8%), Pascal Siakam (-2.8%), and Chris Paul (-2.2%).
This all may seem close, but stats aside, the Greek Freak’s ranginess and ability to cover ground is probably better than just about anyone else in the league, truly making him the best defensive player in the NBA.
…AND TWO
Wait, basketball cards? How old are you guys?!
Yes, we are adults. And, yes, we have both gotten back into something we loved as kids: collecting sports cards. Based on what we are seeing on social media, we aren’t the only ones!
The pandemic has driven the current spike in interest in sports cards; as Emily Kless of The Topps Company, Inc. says, “Once everyone was forced to stay inside, we saw this outpouring of interest in sports cards and trading cards. People were trying to think of new ways to entertain themselves, and lo and behold, they went up to their attics and broke out their old shoebox of baseball cards.” In fact, since the start of the pandemic, sales of basketball cards (130% increase), baseball cards (50%) and football cards (47%) have all spiked on eBay.
Now, everyone has their theory on how to collect and/or invest in sports cards. While we would never tell anyone how they should invest, we definitely have fun buying packs of cards — hoping for a rare card that might be worth 100x the cost of the pack. But, that said, we mainly focus our attention on players we think will still be “relevant” in 15 years — guys that will have Hall of Fame/borderline Hall of Fame careers. Which means, while this is definitely an exercise in projection and speculation, between the two of us we’ve bought the rookie cards of Ja Morant (Memphis Grizzlies), Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics), Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks) and Fernando Tatis, Jr. (baseball - San Diego Padres); other players we’re keeping an eye on to potentially invest in are Luis Robert (baseball - Chicago White Sox) and Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks). And, of course, we’re always looking for underpriced Giannis cards (i.e. not this one that just sold for $1.812 million!)!
Keep an eye out for underpriced Jayson Tatum rookie cards on eBay!
(Like this one from Coach Tailor’s collection)
Keep in mind, we don’t focus solely on the cards of current players, and nor should you. For example, the buzz around the Chicago Bulls/Michael Jordan 10-part documentary, The Last Dance, caused a boom (as if prices weren’t already high enough!) in Michael Jordan related memorabilia, including cards. A perfect condition MJ rookie card just sold for $420,000! What are other former players or teams that might receive buzz for any reason (e.g. a popular documentary) in the future, causing their card values to spike? (While we aren’t going to play Nostradamus and make predictions, you certainly can! Your money, your cards!)
At the end of the day, our advice (to you and to ourselves) is to keep learning and stay educated as the sports card market changes.
If you’ve been out of the game for a while, here’s a good article to check out before you buy anything: https://www.garyvaynerchuk.com/9-factors-to-consider-before-investing-in-sports-cards/
“Never say never, because limits, like fears, are often just an illusion” - Michael Jordan
This quote, from Michael Jordan’s Hall of Fame speech, is particularly powerful. Too many in society live with unfulfilled potential and unresolved dreams — and not because they aren’t capable. But, rather, because they believe they don’t have what it takes (“I could never start my own business or my own newsletter!”) or they are held back by fear — fear of the unknown, fear of failure, fear of others’ judgement, you name it.
As MJ reminds us, those self-imposed limits and fears are often just an illusion. We are often capable of more than we think — just think back to how scary it seemed to ride a bike before you could do it proficiently — and need to realize that if someone similar to us can do it (whatever “it” may be for you!), we can too. And those many “fears” we feel? With any specific fear, we must ask consciously ask ourselves: (1) What am I really scared of? (2) If the worst case scenario came true, how bad is it really? Then, and only then, can we assess if the fear is worth worrying about or just an illusion.
Now, we realize this is easy to say, but harder to actually do when facing real-life situations (e.g. should I start that new business? should I move to that new city?). So here’s two exercises that we find helpful:
Make a list of 10-15 things you’ve done that at some point in your life seemed challenging or scary (e.g. riding a bike, asking someone out on a date, getting into grad school, etc.). Anytime you find yourself doubting whether you can do something, revisit your list to remind yourself that if you figured out how to do all those things in the past you can figure out how to do this too (YOU CAN DO THIS!).
With regard to a “fearful” situation, put pen to paper (or finger to touch screen!) and write out exactly what may go wrong — in great detail (e.g. you move to a new city, you won’t have any friends, you’ll have to figure out a new grocery store/gym/etc.). Then for each potential worry, ask yourself “Is this really that bad?” and, if it is, “Can I fix it?” (e.g. in a new city, I’ll make friends by joining a gym or a running group). You’ll learn real fast whether your fear is unwarranted (and that you can handle this) or legitimate!
We’re just getting started here and would love to get your feedback on how we can get better! Drop us a line at thetriangleand2@gmail.com and help spread the word!
— Ali K. & Coach Tailor (aka “THE TRIANGLE AND TWO GUYS”)
Coaching During COVID-19
Well done Amit!